Oh, Bill...
24 Hours columnist and longtime NDPer Bill Tieleman was full of glee yesterday, posting a blog saying that internal BC Liberal polling has the party down nine points, likely to lose in several seats held by cabinet ministers, and (in the funniest one of all) that Kevin Falcon was perilously close to losing in Cloverdale (a seat he won by 40 points last time). Tieleman said he received the info from a "very reliable" source.
That's not a scoop on your part, Bill: it's wishful thinking.
Having seen some recent internal polling, I can tell you that the Liberal lead provincially is in double digits. Cloverdale is one of, if not the, safest seats in BC. The polling is showing results very similar to what's been reported in the provincial media, with the economy soaring as an issue, and the BC Libs' lead growing as a result.
Now there is no doubt that there are some close races across the province: the two Prince George ridings, the late Stan Hagen's Island riding, and a couple of the Surrey and Vancouver races come to mind. But those ones are always close (within a couple thousand votes either way), and I think the growing BC Liberal lead helps us in those seats.
Indeed, today, the Mustel Group released a provincial poll showing the BC Liberals up 16 points:
BC Liberals 52%
NDP 36%
Green 12%
The economy is now the #1 concern for half the population. This is more typical of what we're seeing than Tieleman's crazy numbers and scenarios.
BC2009 analyzes both the Tieleman column and the Mustel poll.
Of course, the only polls that matter are the 85 individual ones taken in the 85 ridings on May 12 (i.e., the election).
That's not a scoop on your part, Bill: it's wishful thinking.
Having seen some recent internal polling, I can tell you that the Liberal lead provincially is in double digits. Cloverdale is one of, if not the, safest seats in BC. The polling is showing results very similar to what's been reported in the provincial media, with the economy soaring as an issue, and the BC Libs' lead growing as a result.
Now there is no doubt that there are some close races across the province: the two Prince George ridings, the late Stan Hagen's Island riding, and a couple of the Surrey and Vancouver races come to mind. But those ones are always close (within a couple thousand votes either way), and I think the growing BC Liberal lead helps us in those seats.
Indeed, today, the Mustel Group released a provincial poll showing the BC Liberals up 16 points:
BC Liberals 52%
NDP 36%
Green 12%
The economy is now the #1 concern for half the population. This is more typical of what we're seeing than Tieleman's crazy numbers and scenarios.
BC2009 analyzes both the Tieleman column and the Mustel poll.
Of course, the only polls that matter are the 85 individual ones taken in the 85 ridings on May 12 (i.e., the election).
posted by Jordan Bateman @ 11:48 AM
